Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 80565.478878 85047.038297 89529.355743 94345.673563 99371.278846 104457.414043 109990.706365
2026-01-18 73098.884944 79920.106984 86933.711140 94674.498811 102968.527602 111578.942198 121183.792298
2026-01-25 67726.409923 76140.284791 84982.530671 94948.050833 105846.888525 117384.154264 130500.357103
2026-02-01 63320.764995 72888.335799 83129.821046 94876.002474 107942.149602 121996.867865 138224.006432
2026-02-08 60239.317839 70781.806176 82248.453382 95599.286529 110667.334369 127097.066275 146315.205027
2026-02-15 57151.154454 68431.296949 80880.468260 95574.673474 112377.169420 130922.496487 152868.790245
2026-02-22 55281.310764 67320.570001 80781.732174 96864.387069 115468.113988 136222.219945 161032.994201
2026-03-01 53379.265458 66047.305394 80385.799795 97711.859686 117970.049641 140794.355568 168336.172894
2026-03-08 51140.227439 64260.576063 79287.538287 97644.376504 119329.149675 143991.780417 174016.784236
2026-03-15 49318.436617 62877.922772 78581.048657 97960.064430 121071.777854 147587.351273 180133.084018
2026-03-22 48309.900979 62414.488162 78914.758267 99466.272149 124188.384350 152774.696272 188120.038922
2026-03-29 47189.562319 61757.546857 78967.552736 100594.721757 126827.030522 157388.044761 195440.038576
2026-04-05 45876.772501 60828.477339 78667.431495 101286.768692 128951.202485 161423.206349 202137.058932
2026-04-12 44372.356652 59606.332512 77962.202412 101444.927404 130402.013374 164643.301172 207870.048366
2026-04-19 43006.982211 58506.988859 77362.245771 101691.224032 131928.852143 167937.598146 213692.631237
2026-04-26 41565.656672 57258.776026 76529.619668 101605.283447 133012.424576 170672.834676 218831.316768
2026-05-03 40607.079524 56593.724078 76397.369585 102367.900258 135127.979536 174660.384152 225507.416685
2026-05-10 39342.264105 55487.820603 75667.432015 102341.372952 136231.932039 177390.963176 230640.962000
2026-05-17 38767.207100 55261.928092 76042.538568 103704.890233 139076.220881 182277.037749 238457.635161
2026-05-24 38020.001558 54780.874433 76066.193336 104600.806863 141320.649026 186421.538356 245374.365926
2026-05-31 36897.149083 53763.199903 75361.688499 104529.461075 142313.159464 188991.888612 250330.922928
2026-06-07 35997.073503 53016.997734 74986.639087 104863.185042 143808.114878 192186.834466 256077.451835
2026-06-14 35654.371961 53013.448426 75579.086295 106455.302357 146925.488983 197442.018247 264447.520094